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Fairfax County leaders are cautiously supporting Metro’s proposed $4.84 billion fiscal 2027 budget, which promises service improvements without raising fares. But the plan’s long-term outlook may depend on whether Virginia, Maryland and the District approve hundreds of millions of dollars in new transit funding.

In a letter approved Feb. 3, county supervisors said a financially stable and reliable transit system is essential to the economic health of Fairfax County and the broader Washington region.

The board praised planned rail improvements, modest upgrades to bus service and the continuation of MetroAccess service in Fairfax County.

Metro leaders proposed the spending package Jan. 15 for the fiscal year beginning July 1. It includes $2.7 billion for operating expenses, an increase of $116 million from the current budget, and $2.1 billion for capital projects.

Metro General Manager Randy Clarke said the proposal emphasizes better service and rail modernization while avoiding fare increases.

Fairfax County would contribute about $255 million toward Metro’s operating expenses and debt service. Virginia, Maryland, D.C. and local governments would collectively provide approximately $3 billion of the operating and capital budgets.

Another $1.3 billion would come in roughly equal shares from federal subsidies and passenger fares.

Fares would remain unchanged

Under the proposal, Metrorail base fares would continue to range from $2.25 to $6.75 depending on trip length. Late-night and weekend rail fares would remain between $2.25 and $2.50.

Local Metrobus trips would still cost $2.25, while express service would remain $4.80. The maximum MetroAccess fare would stay at $4.50.

Metro projects 281 million passenger trips in fiscal 2027. That would be an increase of about 11.4 million trips, or 4.2%, from the ridership expected by the end of fiscal 2026 in June. The system recorded just under 264 million trips in fiscal 2025.

Passenger revenue is expected to cover 34.5% of rail operating costs and 9.2% of bus operating costs.

Regional funding remains unsettled

Metro’s budget process will continue over the coming months, with a major question still unresolved: whether Virginia, Maryland and the D.C. Council will finance the improvements outlined in the DMV Moves plan adopted by regional leaders last November.

That proposal, which also examined local bus networks and other transit services, calls for more than $460 million in new dedicated Metro funding beginning in mid-2027. The amount would grow by 3% annually.

Fairfax supervisors endorsed the plan in an 8-1 vote in December. Springfield District Supervisor Pat Herrity, the board’s only Republican, cast the opposing vote. The Braddock District seat was vacant at the time.

Virginia lawmakers weigh new taxes and fees

The Virginia General Assembly is considering companion bills from Del. Kathy Tran and state Sen. Adam Ebbin that would establish several new revenue sources for transit.

The proposals include a regional sales and use tax, levies on rideshare and retail delivery services, a regional commercial parking tax and a statewide highway-use fee.

The legislation would direct 49% of revenue from the existing Commonwealth Mass Transit Fund to the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission for Metro’s operating and capital needs.

Virginia could provide an additional $50 million to match federal Metro funding if Maryland and D.C. each contribute at least one-third of that amount.

The bills also would create a Northern Virginia Transportation District regional fund that distributes money annually to the transportation commission and Metro’s capital fund. Metro’s allocation would begin at $136 million in fiscal 2028 and rise 3% each year.

When combined with a $154.5 million commitment approved in 2019, Virginia’s state and regional support for Metro would exceed $326 million by fiscal 2032, according to an analysis by the Virginia Department of Budget and Management.

Both bills were awaiting consideration by their respective appropriations committees.

Hunter Mill District Supervisor Walter Alcorn, who chairs the county board’s transportation committee and serves on Metro’s board, said Feb. 3 that the outcome in Richmond remained difficult to predict.

“We’ll see. I’m moderately hopeful,” Alcorn said.

Metro will hold a virtual public hearing on the proposed budget at 6 p.m. Thursday and accept comments until 5 p.m. Feb. 10.