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Fairfax County residents could face higher property taxes as the county prepares to eliminate more than 200 government positions, reduce programs and give public schools far less new funding than requested.

County Executive Bryan Hill presented the proposed $5.7 billion fiscal 2026 budget to the Board of Supervisors on Feb. 18, describing it as an attempt to balance rising costs against a projected $292.7 million deficit.

“I don’t think anybody is happy with this budget, but this is where we are,” Hill said.

The proposal assumes General Fund revenue will grow 4.2%, partly through a higher real estate tax rate. Even so, Hill said the added revenue would not cover expenses without $59.8 million in program and staffing reductions—the county’s largest dollar-value cuts since more than $90 million was eliminated in fiscal 2010 following the 2008 recession.

Agency budgets would decline by an average of about 3.4%. Departments had been asked to identify potential reductions of 10%.

More than half of the roughly 200 positions targeted for elimination are vacant. When possible, employees whose jobs are cut would be offered other county positions, Hill said.

Hunter Mill Supervisor Walter Alcorn warned that the reductions would have tangible consequences.

“These are not fake,” Alcorn said.

Homeowners could pay hundreds more

Hill recommended raising the real estate tax rate by 1.5 cents, bringing it to $1.14 per $100 of assessed value. The rate increase would generate an estimated $50.9 million.

Combined with rising assessments affecting more than 90% of Fairfax homeowners, the change would increase the typical homeowner’s tax bill by approximately $638, or 7.6%.

Fairfax expects to collect $3.8 billion in real estate taxes during the coming fiscal year. Several supervisors immediately expressed concern about asking residents to absorb both higher assessments and a higher rate.

Board Chairman Jeff McKay called the proposed 1.5-cent increase “far too high” given current economic conditions and uncertainty. Braddock Supervisor James Walkinshaw said the increase was “more than I can personally bear.”

“We have to do more with less,” Walkinshaw said, citing decisions in Washington and Richmond that could affect the local economy as well as the risk of continued inflation.

The county’s tax base is also shifting as office vacancies weaken commercial property revenue. At the end of 2024, 22.1 million of Fairfax County’s 119.9 million square feet of office space was vacant.

Commercial properties are projected to represent 14.8% of the real estate tax base in fiscal 2026, down from 15.6% in the current fiscal year ending June 30. Office buildings generally provide substantial tax revenue while requiring relatively few government services. Hill said hotels and data centers have increased their contributions, partially offsetting the office decline.

Schools would receive less than half their request

The proposal would increase the county transfer to Fairfax County Public Schools by $118.6 million, bringing total county support to about $2.7 billion.

Superintendent Michelle Reid had requested an additional $268 million. Fully meeting that request would require another 4.5 cents on the real estate tax rate, Hill said.

Under the proposed budget, schools would receive 51.5% of General Fund revenue. If supervisors approve that amount, school leaders could face difficult choices, including whether they can fulfill commitments made to employees through the new collective-bargaining process.

The school system also faces uncertainty over possible state and federal funding changes.

“There may be some very difficult decisions our colleagues on the School Board may have,” McKay said.

A meals tax could replace the property tax increase

Hill did not formally recommend a countywide meals tax, but presented it as an option for reducing pressure on homeowners.

A 3% meals tax beginning in January 2026 would generate an estimated $48 million during the final six months of the fiscal year. County staff said that amount could eliminate the proposed real estate tax-rate increase.

A 4% meals tax could support a net property tax-rate reduction, or a combination of a lower rate and restoration of some proposed cuts. Virginia law allows localities to levy meals taxes of up to 6%.

McKay said he strongly preferred using meals-tax revenue to offset real estate taxes and indicated support for a 3% rate. Providence Supervisor Dalia Palchick favored using some revenue to ease human-services reductions, while Alcorn suggested directing some toward affordable housing.

Springfield Supervisor Pat Herrity, the board’s only Republican, questioned whether a meals tax would produce lasting property tax relief. County voters previously rejected meals-tax referendums twice, but the General Assembly subsequently removed the requirement for a public vote.

Herndon and Vienna already collect meals taxes within their boundaries, where a Fairfax County tax would not apply.

Employee raises vary by bargaining status

General county employees and nonunion public safety personnel would receive a 2% cost-of-living adjustment, along with performance, merit and longevity increases for eligible workers.

Under a collective-bargaining agreement approved in 2023, unionized firefighters would receive a 3.1% pay-scale adjustment plus merit increases.

Police officers would receive a 2% scale adjustment and a 2% cost-of-living increase, along with applicable merit and longevity increases.

More tax revenue would support affordable housing

The budget would dedicate 1.25 cents of the real estate tax rate to the county’s goal of producing 10,000 net new affordable homes by 2034. The current allocation is one cent.

That change would raise affordable-housing funding to $42.44 million in fiscal 2026.

Herrity said he was struggling with increasing the allocation while residents across Fairfax face a growing tax burden. Hill responded that the proposal follows an existing board policy, which Herrity acknowledged.

Four years of bond votes proposed

Hill also recommended holding annual bond referendums over the next four Novembers to finance capital projects.

The first would be a $346 million fiscal 2026 package consisting of:

• $180 million for the Fairfax County Park Authority;
• $125 million for human-services projects, including $25 million for early-childhood education facilities; and
• $41 million for libraries, including improvements to the Herndon Fortnightly and Kings Park branches.

Proposed fiscal 2027 through 2029 bond packages would total an estimated $1.1 billion and focus primarily on transportation and education.

Hill said future capital projects must undergo the same scrutiny being applied to the General Fund as the county searches for savings.

Federal and state decisions add uncertainty

The spending plan was developed before the Trump administration took office Jan. 20 and does not account for possible federal workforce or funding reductions.

Hill said decisions at the federal and state levels could have enormous short- and long-term effects on Fairfax County. About 80,000 federal employees live in the county, along with thousands of government contractors.

McKay said the federal situation poses a greater risk to Fairfax than the COVID-19 pandemic because local workers are already experiencing direct consequences.

Walkinshaw also criticized what he called severe state underfunding, particularly for education, while Gov. Glenn Youngkin and state lawmakers pursue significant tax reductions.

Public hearings set for April

Hill’s presentation began a roughly three-month review process.

The supervisors’ Budget Committee scheduled meetings for Feb. 25, jointly with the School Board, as well as March 11 and March 25.

On March 18, supervisors are expected to authorize legal advertisements covering the real estate tax rate, a possible meals tax and a proposed increase in the local transient-occupancy tax rate from 2% to 6%.

Public hearings are scheduled for April 22 through April 24. The board plans to adopt the final budget May 13, ahead of the new fiscal year beginning July 1.

The Fairfax Workers Coalition, which supports employees outside recognized collective-bargaining units, called for long-term changes to county government and a broader examination of costs and community needs.

McKay said the executive proposal marks the beginning, rather than the end, of the public budget debate.

“There will be a lot of time for deliberation in the months ahead,” he said.