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A casino-centered development in Fairfax County could generate substantial new tax revenue, but a preliminary county study estimates a considerably smaller payoff than earlier projections from state analysts and a prospective developer.

MuniCap, a consultant commissioned by Fairfax County, estimated that a casino would produce $313.6 million in annual gaming revenue and about $62.1 million in state and local gaming taxes.

Under Virginia’s current casino tax structure, approximately $42.4 million would go to the state and $19.9 million to Fairfax County. County staff noted that the law directs roughly 70% of gaming-tax revenue to the commonwealth and 30% to the host locality, depending on total revenue.

Adding a hotel, event venue, restaurants and stores could raise Fairfax County’s annual tax benefit to $29.1 million, or $1.2 billion over 30 years, according to a county summary of the study. The state could receive $53 million annually and $2.2 billion over the same period.

Even so, the projected local revenue would replace less than one penny of Fairfax County’s current real estate tax rate. By comparison, County Executive Bryan Hill’s proposed $5.7 billion fiscal 2027 budget anticipates $135.8 million from the meals tax that took effect Jan. 1.

The county declined to release the complete study because it remains a preliminary draft prepared before this year’s General Assembly session. A county spokesperson said it would need to be updated if lawmakers approve casino legislation, using the final bill’s details.

Senate advances Fairfax casino legislation

The Virginia Senate voted 23-14 on Feb. 13 to approve Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell’s proposal to make Fairfax County eligible to host a casino.

A Senate committee had removed language effectively restricting a potential casino to Tysons. Before the full vote, however, Surovell restored a requirement that the gaming operation be part of a coordinated mixed-use project containing at least 1.5 million square feet.

Surovell said a development of that size could include a concert venue, conference center, hotel, entertainment district, IMAX theater and facilities for sporting events.

The legislation would not approve a casino by itself. If it clears the House and is signed by Gov. Abigail Spanberger, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors would decide whether to schedule a referendum. A majority of county voters would then have to approve the casino before operators could compete for a license.

Estimates trail previous projections

MuniCap’s forecast is more conservative than figures previously offered by the Virginia Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission and Comstock Companies, which has considered a vacant property near the Spring Hill Metro station in Tysons.

A 2019 JLARC analysis, focused primarily on proposed casinos in Bristol, Danville, Norfolk, Portsmouth and Richmond, estimated that a Northern Virginia casino could generate an additional $155 million in gaming-tax revenue. It also projected that Virginia could retain about $100 million then being spent by residents at casinos in other states. The report did not specifically examine Fairfax County as a host.

Comstock used MGM National Harbor in Maryland as a comparison. That casino hotel reported $823.7 million in gaming revenue during fiscal 2024 and $838.4 million during fiscal 2025.

In February 2025, Comstock projected that a comparable Fairfax casino could yield $209.1 million in annual tax revenue, including $149.2 million for Virginia and $59.9 million for the county.

MuniCap appears to have relied more heavily on the performance of Virginia casinos. Through September 2025, casinos in Bristol, Portsmouth and Danville had grossed $182 million, $309 million and $240 million, respectively. With temporary facilities later opening in Norfolk and Petersburg, Virginia casinos produced $81 million in gaming revenue and $14 million in taxes in the most recently reported month.

Surovell called the county consultant’s assumptions “extraordinarily conservative.” He argued that the study underestimated Northern Virginia’s ability to recapture money spent across state lines and attract customers from outside Virginia.

He also said the analysis did not fully account for property, hotel, admissions, sales and meals taxes or the potential economic effects of a convention and events complex.

County model is much smaller than proposed project

The consultant modeled a 396,629-square-foot commercial development—far below the 1.5 million square feet required by Surovell’s bill—and assumed no residential construction.

Its hypothetical project included a casino with 1,490 slot machines and 75 table games, 55,796 square feet of food and beverage space, 6,200 square feet of other retail, a 300-room hotel and a 2,250-seat event venue.

MGM National Harbor, by comparison, has a 308-room hotel and a 3,000-seat theater. Comstock’s concept called for 900 hotel rooms and a 5,500-seat event venue.

MuniCap estimated that the development would directly or indirectly support 2,466 permanent jobs and 918 temporary construction jobs. County staff said more work is needed to calculate local-government costs and employment effects, noting that the preliminary analysis did not consider health, human-services or transportation impacts.

Casino debate exposes local divide

Surovell has argued that casino development could strengthen Fairfax County’s declining commercial tax base, ease pressure on property owners and produce state revenue for school construction. A similar bill he introduced last year stalled in the House of Delegates.

Hill’s proposed fiscal 2027 budget would keep the real estate tax rate at $1.1225 per $100 of assessed value. Because home assessments have risen, however, the average residential property owner would still pay about $357 more.

Sens. Jennifer Boysko, Barbara Favola and Adam Ebbin spoke against the casino proposal during the Senate debate. They pointed to community opposition and emphasized that Fairfax County, unlike other Virginia casino hosts, did not ask the General Assembly for permission to pursue one.

The Board of Supervisors voted narrowly in December to oppose casino legislation unless the county itself requests the authority. Among its objections is the state-local division of gaming-tax revenue.

Favola said other jurisdictions seeking casinos had entered the legislative process with local unity and established plans, conditions she said are absent in Fairfax County.

Boysko called for independent verification of the financial projections, possibly through a statewide gaming commission. She warned that imposing the decision on county supervisors would deepen local political tensions and predicted a referendum would fail.

A separate bill sponsored by Del. Paul Krizek would create a Virginia Gaming Commission to oversee gambling statewide. The House passed that measure 90-7 on Feb. 17, sending it to the Senate for consideration.

The Fairfax casino bill had not yet been assigned to a House committee. A state fiscal-impact statement said Virginia does not anticipate financial effects unless Fairfax voters ultimately approve a casino referendum.