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Fairfax County ranks third among seven major jurisdictions in economic competitiveness, but consultants warned that faster-growing regions are threatening its long-held advantages in technology, consulting and corporate headquarters.
Camoin Associates CEO Rachel Selsky told the Board of Supervisors’ economic initiatives committee on Tuesday, March 25, that the county must be prepared to defend its existing economic gains while pursuing new growth.
Fairfax hired the firm to review its economic development and business-retention efforts. The resulting 100-page report is nearing completion.
Camoin compared Fairfax with Collin County, Texas; Fulton County, Georgia; Denver County, Colorado; Montgomery County, Maryland; Middlesex County, Massachusetts; and Santa Clara County, California.
Using 13 metrics, the analysis placed Collin County first and Fairfax third. Camoin senior vice president Dan Gunderson said the result was respectable because Fairfax was being measured against some of the country’s strongest jurisdictions.
Fairfax ranked first for its pools of information technology and corporate headquarters talent. It finished last in none of the categories, although it placed sixth in both investment attractiveness and innovation.
The analysis was conducted in 2024, before President Donald Trump began his second term on Jan. 20. Since then, the challenges confronting the Washington region have intensified.
Braddock District Supervisor James Walkinshaw described the current situation as an economic shock and dislocation. Rebecca Moudry, director of the county’s Department of Economic Initiatives, said officials could not have anticipated the dramatic shifts and threats that emerged after the study was commissioned.
Selsky said pressure on the region’s technology sector was already building before the Trump administration’s disruptions. Although Fairfax continues to perform well in retaining corporate headquarters, the county and the broader region have begun losing market share in information technology, consulting and emerging technologies.
The number of IT firms in the Washington region is projected to grow at an annualized rate of about 4% through 2028. Comparable metropolitan areas included in the analysis are expected to post rates ranging from 9% to 22%.
Those competitors can offer advantages that Fairfax often cannot, including less expensive housing, easier commutes and tax incentives attractive to technology companies.
Gunderson said the county should prioritize retaining its current businesses as much as recruiting new ones. He also urged officials to closely monitor emerging counties where leaders are aggressively pursuing executives and entrepreneurs.
Initial recommendations include improving transportation and technology infrastructure, strengthening regional connections and branding, supporting a more robust startup network, and deepening relationships with companies already headquartered in Fairfax.
The final report will also examine how the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority and Department of Economic Initiatives can use their resources and divide their responsibilities. When Franconia District Supervisor Rodney Lusk asked how the work should be split, the consultants said there are multiple viable approaches.
Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay said the review should help county leaders sharpen their economic development priorities. His greatest concern, he said, is allowing the county’s efforts to remain stuck in neutral.
Housing affordability also emerged as a threat to Fairfax’s workforce. Providence District Supervisor Dalia Palchik raised concerns about the net loss of residents between ages 30 and 50.
Palchik said she and three siblings grew up in the area, but none of the others chose to remain. She said people are relocating to places such as Richmond, Atlanta and Texas, where they can find housing.
Despite the mounting competition, Gunderson said Fairfax still has strong long-term prospects and opportunities for future growth.