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Fairfax County home prices lost momentum in June as a sharp increase in inventory gave buyers more leverage in a market still constrained by high mortgage rates and affordability concerns.

Homes that closed during the month sold for an average of $369 per square foot, unchanged from June 2024. That was also slightly below the county’s average of $375 per square foot for the first half of 2025.

Despite flat pricing, sales activity increased. Fairfax recorded 1,324 home sales in June, up 11.1% from 1,192 a year earlier.

The average sales price across all residential properties slipped 0.6%, from $885,650 to $880,484. Single-family homes averaged $1,167,119, down 0.8% from $1,176,205.

Because more homes changed hands, total countywide sales volume reached $1.16 billion, a 12.2% year-over-year increase.

Per-square-foot pricing helps account for changes in the types of homes sold each month. A greater share of single-family houses or attached properties, including townhomes and condominiums, can otherwise distort average sales-price comparisons.

Most other Northern Virginia jurisdictions posted annual gains in June. Falls Church climbed 16.7% to $509 per square foot, while its first-half average rose 10.2% to $519.

Alexandria’s June average increased 2.1% to $493 per square foot, and its first-half average rose 1% to $488. Loudoun County edged up 0.3% to $295 in June, with its six-month average gaining 1.7% to $300.

Prince William County averaged $255 per square foot in June, reported as a 2% increase from $235, while its first-half average rose 2.8% to $257.

Arlington moved in the opposite direction. Its June average fell 5.3% to $482 per square foot, although its first-half figure increased 0.4% to $507.

Across the Mid-Atlantic, the June average rose 3.5%, from $254 to $263 per square foot. The year-to-date average increased 3.2% to $257.

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, described the regional market as active but stagnant. She said 2025 transactions were on track to match last year as elevated prices and mortgage rates continued to discourage buyers.

Fairfax inventory increased by more than 50% from a year earlier, expanding purchasers’ choices and strengthening their negotiating position. Sturtevant said that shift was weighing on price growth.

Across the Washington region, the median price of homes sold in June was $650,000. That represented a 1.6% annual gain, the slowest appreciation rate in two years. Loudoun County and Frederick County, Maryland, posted the region’s strongest appreciation.

The June figures cover most, but not all, transactions and remain preliminary.

More Virginia Realtors Expect Prices to Fall

A growing share of Virginia real estate professionals expects home prices to decline in the coming months.

In a recent Virginia Realtors survey, 41% of respondents predicted that prices would be lower within three months, up from 32% in the previous month. The share expecting prices to rise fell from 31% to 25%, while 30% continued to anticipate little change.

The online survey ran from June 26 through July 2 and received 855 responses. Of those respondents, 647 had participated in at least one transaction during the preceding month.

Ryan Price, chief economist for Virginia Realtors, said the weaker outlook likely reflects several forces. The market typically begins slowing in August, which often corresponds with a lower median price, while expanding inventory could also lead to softer prices in certain communities and price ranges.

The survey results cover Virginia as a whole and were not broken down by region.