Article Text

Fairfax County entered 2026 with an unusual split in its housing market: January sales increased even as prices declined and homes took longer to secure buyers.

A total of 568 properties closed during the month, up 1.4% from 560 in January 2025. Fairfax was one of the few Washington-area jurisdictions to record year-over-year sales growth while transactions fell sharply across much of the region.

The county’s median sales price dropped 3.6%, from $700,000 to $675,000. The average price declined 1.5%, from $860,520 to $847,557.

Average prices fell across each major housing category. Single-family homes averaged $1,233,492, down 1.1%. Attached properties, including townhouses, rowhouses and condominiums, averaged $542,858, a 2.5% decrease. Condominiums alone also fell 2.5%, to an average of $406,465.

Fairfax recorded $480.7 million in total January sales volume, down 0.7% from the previous year. The average price per square foot declined 4.2%, from $383 to $367.

Buyers gain time and choices

Properties closing in January spent considerably longer on the market. The median period from listing to a ratified contract climbed from 11 days to 26 days, while the average increased from 28 days to 37 days.

Inventory expanded as well. Fairfax ended January with 929 properties available, about 15% more than a year earlier.

January is typically among the slowest months for local real estate, but activity in the pipeline pointed to stronger sales ahead. The county recorded 701 pending sales, a 13.1% increase that could produce additional closings in February or March.

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, said the market is gradually moving away from exceptionally tight conditions favoring sellers and toward a more balanced environment. Buyers and sellers, she said, will need to adjust their expectations for pricing, negotiations and time on the market.

Buyers may have more leverage to request concessions or favorable terms, but limited inventory could still generate strong spring interest in desirable neighborhoods when homes are priced appropriately.

Regional sales tumble

Across the Washington metropolitan area, January closed sales fell 10.3% to 2,450.

Among the region’s major jurisdictions, only Fairfax County, up 1.4%, and Maryland’s Montgomery County, up 3.5%, posted year-over-year gains. Falls Church also registered an increase, though its sales total was much smaller.

Sales declined by more than 20% in the District of Columbia, Arlington County, Loudoun County and Alexandria.

Despite the drop in transactions, the regional median sales price increased 4.8% to $585,000. That gain partly reflected a smaller share of condominium sales, which are generally less expensive than single-family homes and townhouses.

The regional median time between listing and a ratified contract rose from 23 days to 36 days.

Price movement differed by property type. The median price for 1,084 single-family homes increased 2.1% to $750,000. The median for 711 townhouses held steady at $575,000, while the median for 654 condominiums declined 1.3% to $375,000.

Rising monthly condominium fees, driven partly by inflation, have added pressure for prospective buyers. Real estate taxes that commonly reach $4,000 to $5,000 or more per year for a typical Northern Virginia condominium are also weighing on affordability.

Condominiums selling in January spent a median of 43 days on the market. Single-family homes took 31 days, while townhouses took 36.

Analysts expect the Mid-Atlantic housing market to become more active in spring 2026 as mortgage rates ease and seasonal inventory grows. Price increases are expected to remain slower, with more balanced conditions overall, although markets with limited supply may remain competitive.

February and possibly March results could also reflect disruption from the late-January winter storm, which curtailed in-person home searches for as long as a week.

The January figures cover most, but not all, listed homes and remain preliminary.

Virginia finishes 2025 with gains

Virginia recorded 103,772 home sales in 2025, a 1.2% increase from 2024. About 54% of the commonwealth’s 133 cities and counties reported year-over-year growth.

The statewide median price across all property types rose 3.2% to $425,000. Total sales volume increased 5.4% to $55.7 billion.