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Fairfax County’s housing market is expected to shift toward a healthier balance in 2026, with more homes changing hands and prices rising at a slower pace. Condominiums, however, could lose some value as higher association fees weigh on demand.

A forecast released Dec. 29 by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis and the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors projects modest price growth despite continued uncertainty surrounding the regional economy and a shrinking federal workforce.

Terry Clower of the Center for Regional Analysis said prices should keep climbing, but far less dramatically than in recent years. Bright MLS has offered a more cautious outlook, predicting that sales prices will decline across the broader Washington area in 2026.

Clower described the regional economy as being at a difficult-to-predict pivot point.

The market is nonetheless moving toward a better balance between buyers and sellers, according to NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin. That would mark a change from the pandemic-era market, when scarce inventory drove prices sharply higher across Northern Virginia and the Washington region.

Casey Menish, NVAR’s 2025 president and an affiliate of Pearson Smith Realty, said buyers in a more balanced market should have time to find the right property instead of rushing to purchase the first available option.

Fairfax forecast favors houses over condos

The forecast projects different outcomes across Fairfax County’s major housing categories:

• Single-family home sales are expected to increase 8.4%, while the median price rises 1.9%.
• Townhouse sales are projected to grow 4.2%, accompanied by a 1.7% increase in the median price.
• Condominium sales are forecast to rise 2.4%, even as prices decline 2.7%.

Clower said rising condominium association fees are restraining condo appreciation in Fairfax and elsewhere in the region. Those costs have increased partly because of broader inflation during the past three years.

Still, he emphasized that the projected condo decline does not amount to a collapse or a severe downturn.

The anticipated 8.4% increase in single-family sales also comes with an important qualification: Fairfax is starting from relatively weak 2025 sales numbers for a county of its size.

Prospective buyers could benefit from a double-digit increase in available inventory compared with the pandemic years. Clower said the region’s supply of homes began increasing noticeably in late 2024 and should expand more quickly in 2026.

Personal income growth may also begin catching up with housing costs after years in which home expenses rose faster than earnings. Rob Carney, NVAR’s 2026 president and an affiliate of TTR Sotheby’s International Realty, said that could give the region an opportunity to regain some lost ground on affordability.

Close-in communities could retain an edge

Fairfax’s predicted 1.9% increase in single-family home prices places it near the middle among nearby jurisdictions.

Alexandria is forecast to lead with a 4.2% gain in its median price, followed by Arlington at 3.8% and Loudoun County at 3.3%. Prince William County is expected to record a slight 0.2% decline, while Stafford County could see prices fall 4.6%.

Return-to-office mandates imposed since the pandemic may be strengthening demand in close-in communities while weakening markets farther from Washington. Clower said some buyers who previously considered outer suburbs are now concentrating their searches inside the Beltway, helping sustain price growth there.

Mortgage rates are expected to remain around 6% during 2026. That is slightly below the long-term average but well above the unusually low rates buyers encountered early in the pandemic.

Carney said those historically low rates are unlikely to return, though recent improvement should provide some help with affordability.

NVAR represents approximately 13,000 residential and commercial real estate professionals across the region. Final 2025 sales and price figures for Northern Virginia and the Washington area are expected Jan. 11.

The national outlook is stronger. A November forecast from the National Association of Realtors projected that U.S. home sales will rise roughly 14% in 2026, with prices increasing about 4%.

The association’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, attributed the expected recovery to easing mortgage rates, continued employment growth and improving stability following several difficult years. He predicted a measurable rebound in sales and said national home prices are not in danger of declining.