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Fairfax County is roughly halfway toward its goal of adding 10,000 affordable homes by 2034, but its top housing official cautioned that reaching the finish line will depend on the housing market, county finances and other uncertain factors.
“We do feel like we’re very much headed in the right direction,” Department of Housing and Community Development Director Thomas Fleetwood told the Board of Supervisors’ Housing Committee on May 12.
Still, Fleetwood stopped short of guaranteeing success.
“A lot has to go right to get to 10,000,” he said, pointing to market conditions, county budget decisions and other variables that could affect the effort.
Mount Vernon District Supervisor Dan Storck pressed Fleetwood for more detail during the final portion of the committee’s 90-minute meeting. Storck said he was encouraged by the progress made since supervisors established the goal in 2022, but worried Fairfax could fall short unless affordable housing remains a leading priority.
“Are there the dollars needed to make that happen? Where do we stand?” Storck asked.
Supervisors increased affordable-housing support to $52.7 million in the recently adopted fiscal 2027 budget. However, that amount remains below the county’s aspirational target of dedicating funding equivalent to 2 cents of the real estate tax rate, frustrating housing advocates.
Storck said county leaders need a clearer understanding of the millions of dollars required to meet the goal so he can explain the challenge to others. Without stronger commitments, he said he remained “deeply cautious” about the county’s prospects.
“We’ve got to make it happen,” Storck said.
The discussion then turned into a back-and-forth over when staff could provide a more concrete funding analysis. Fleetwood initially said staff would examine the issue but resisted committing to a date.
After he suggested the end of summer, Storck pushed for a firmer deadline.
“No later than August?” Storck asked. “I like dates.”
County Executive Bryan Hill eventually stepped in, saying he would confer with staff and return with a definite deadline for delivering the information. Storck accepted that response.
The 10,000-home target includes rental and owner-occupied units created by private developers, government entities and nonprofit organizations. A separate county policy calls for preventing any net loss of existing affordable housing.
The Board of Supervisors adopted the current goal in 2022, doubling a previous target of 5,000 affordable homes established in 2019.
County figures show 25% of the targeted units have been completed, 15% are under construction and another 15% are in pre-development—putting about 55% of the goal somewhere in the development pipeline.
The ultimate count may also hinge on how Fairfax defines affordability. Under county programs, affordable dwelling units can be reserved for households earning up to 70% of the area median income. In 2025, the area median income for a four-person household was $163,900.
Workforce dwelling units serve a broader income range, covering households earning between 60% and 120% of the area median income.