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Fairfax County Public Schools could face a major funding crisis as county leaders consider a budget proposal that delivers less than half the additional money requested by the school system—and federal policy changes put another $168.1 million at risk.

County Executive Brian Hill unveiled a proposed fiscal 2026 budget on Tuesday, Feb. 18, that provides schools with $125.3 million in additional funding. Of that amount, $118.6 million would go directly to the FCPS operating budget.

Superintendent Michelle Reid has requested $268.3 million to cover employee raises, expanded student support and other expenses.

At-Large School Board member and budget chair Kyle McDaniel said the potential loss of federal aid adds another layer of uncertainty. The Trump administration has warned that schools could lose funding if they do not comply with policies involving transgender athletes, diversity and equity programs, and services for undocumented students.

“Where do we come up with that funding?” McDaniel said. “That’s now going to add an extra layer of complication onto an already tight budget season.”

Essential programs face uncertainty

Federal funding supports meals, special education, multilingual education, workforce training and other student services in Fairfax County.

During fiscal 2025, about 68,000 county students rely on free or reduced-price meals supported by $58 million in federal funding. Another $51 million goes toward special education, while $56.5 million supports multilingual learning and workforce training.

A White House memo issued in January sought to freeze federal aid for programs the administration considered inconsistent with its agenda, including diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. A federal judge temporarily blocked that action on Jan. 28 over concerns about executive overreach, though agencies reportedly continued withholding some money despite court orders.

“It’s chaos, and … there’s no predictability,” McDaniel said. “So, projecting ahead even two weeks, much less three months, is a very difficult thing to do in budgetary terms.”

FCPS has enough reserves to maintain its free and reduced-price meal program for roughly three months. McDaniel said the school system would continue finding a way to feed students after those reserves were exhausted, but doing so with local money could affect teacher raises, class sizes and other resources.

“If the free and reduced [meal] funding is gone … that’s $60 million,” he said. “Where do we come up with that funding?”

County confronts its own shortfall

Fairfax County is already trying to close an estimated $292.7 million funding gap, marking the second consecutive year with a substantial shortfall.

Hill’s proposed $5.7 billion budget includes nearly $60 million in spending reductions, the largest cuts since fiscal 2010. His plan would eliminate 208 county positions and reduce programs including high school crossing guards, saving $59.8 million.

The proposal also calls for a 1.5-cent increase in the real estate tax rate. That would generate $50.9 million while raising the average homeowner’s bill by $638. A two-percentage-point increase in the hotel tax is projected to bring in another $13 million.

Rising home assessments would provide the county with an additional $197.5 million even if the existing real estate tax rate remained unchanged.

County leaders are also considering a 3% or 4% food and beverage tax. Because it would not take effect until January 2026, halfway through the fiscal year that begins July 1, Hill estimated that a 4% tax would generate $65.1 million during its first six months.

McDaniel said those projections may not fully account for the pressure Fairfax could face if federal support disappears or other county services require more money.

“We absolutely are planning for the worst,” he said.

Supervisors resist property-tax increase

Some supervisors have objected to another real estate tax increase as higher property assessments already drive up residents’ bills.

Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay called the proposed 1.5-cent increase “far too high.” He said reductions in the federal workforce, federal contracting and demand for office space could pose a greater threat to Fairfax County’s economy than the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We are specifically [a] target with these federal government reductions,” McKay said during Hill’s budget presentation.

He warned that residents facing job losses could struggle to remain in their homes if their tax bills rise by an average of $638.

“We need to factor that in and help people be able to keep a roof over their head,” McKay said.

Fairfax County launched a webpage with resources for recently laid-off workers, while supervisors urged Gov. Glenn Youngkin to establish similar assistance at the state level.

FCPS is also waiting for the General Assembly to finalize an updated state budget. McDaniel said the House and Senate proposals contain different funding figures that school officials will monitor closely.

The county and school boards are scheduled to hold a joint budget meeting Tuesday, Feb. 25. Public hearings are planned for April, followed by a final vote in May.