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The return of a regional drought watch is intensifying concerns about whether the Potomac River can continue meeting the D.C. area’s growing water needs.

Fairfax Water General Manager Jamie Bain Hedges told the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors during a June 2 joint meeting with the utility’s board that population growth, expanding data centers, climate change and accidents that cut off access to the river all threaten the regional supply.

“These issues are real,” Hedges said, warning that disruptive events are “kind of a matter of when, not if.”

“We need to continue planning for this,” she said.

The danger became clear earlier this year when millions of gallons of untreated sewage accidentally entered the Potomac. The spill followed a mid-January collapse along the 54-mile Potomac Interceptor. Emergency work took weeks, while a complete rehabilitation of the pipeline is expected to continue for months.

A far more serious disruption occurred in March 1993, when a Colonial Pipeline break released more than 400,000 gallons of fuel into Sugarland Run, a Potomac tributary. Fairfax Water shut down its Potomac intake for two weeks and relied on the Occoquan Watershed instead.

Hedges said similar events will continue, with climate change adding to the risks facing a reliable supply of safe water.

Fairfax Water is well-positioned, she said, but officials are still developing backup plans that could cost more than $1 billion. Those costs would ultimately affect the 2.2 million Northern Virginia residents served directly or indirectly by the system.

Failing to prepare could prove even more costly.

“A loss of the Potomac would have significant economic impacts,” Hedges said.

Aqueduct proposal raises additional concerns

Fairfax Water is also watching DC Water’s unsolicited bid to acquire the Washington Aqueduct from the Army Corps of Engineers.

Officials in Fairfax and Arlington counties fear the proposed acquisition could disrupt existing arrangements governing access to regional water supplies. Arlington receives most of its water through the aqueduct, while Fairfax Water gets about 6% of its supply from it.

That smaller share still “provides insurance” for Fairfax Water, Hedges said, adding that the utility has “serious concerns” about the proposal.

Fairfax Water, the Washington Aqueduct and WSSC Water in Maryland commissioned a regional supply study last year from the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, which manages area water resources.

The report, released in December, concluded that the threat of shortages is increasing and that some reservoirs could run out of water as early as 2030.

Nearly 6 million residents affected by drought watch

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments’ Drought Coordination Committee issued the regional drought watch on June 3, one day after the Fairfax supervisors’ discussion.

The watch covers nearly 6 million people in Northern Virginia, Maryland and the District. It follows months of unusually dry weather that persisted despite winter storms and several rainy days in late May.

It is the region’s first drought watch since June 2025, when officials lifted a watch that had been in place for nearly a year. Before that, the area’s most recent drought watch lasted one month in 2010.

Residents and businesses are being asked to conserve water voluntarily to reduce the chance of conditions worsening as summer begins.

“Our region hasn’t seen extremely dry conditions like this in about two decades,” COG Executive Director Clark Mercer said. “We’re asking the public to help by incorporating simple, water-saving actions into their daily routines.”

May brought an unusual mix of extremely hot, dry days followed by a week of moderate but sustained rainfall. Hedges said the rain “didn’t make much of a dent” in the drought.

The region’s coordinated drought plan, adopted in 2000, has four stages: normal conditions, drought watch, drought warning and drought emergency. The region has never reached the warning stage under that plan.

A drought warning would introduce voluntary water restrictions across the area. Mandatory restrictions would follow if officials declared a drought emergency.

“Due to years of planning and preparation, our water-supply infrastructure is well-equipped to handle drought,” ICPRB Executive Director Michael Nardolilli said. “Nevertheless, it makes sense for all of us to use water wisely.”

COG recommends keeping showers under five minutes, repairing plumbing leaks, washing only full loads of dishes and clothing, and using commercial car washes that recycle water. Residents can also conserve by turning off faucets while brushing their teeth or shaving, sweeping sidewalks and driveways instead of hosing them down, and avoiding excessive watering of lawns and plants.

Mount Vernon District Supervisor Dan Storck said those habits should continue throughout the year.

“Water is life, and I take that very seriously,” Storck said.

The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality currently classifies nearly the entire state as being under a drought warning. Only the far southeastern portion of Virginia is designated as being under a drought watch.